Despite all my rantings on the economy and how I think the government is making things worse I am bullish for April. Seasonally speaking the market cycle is bullish this month. Last months break down in commodities on the DBA and the DBC along with weakness in Gold (GLD) and Oil (USO) tell me there is a window of relief from out of control commodity bulls. Even though Australia didn't cut rates last night we are seeing the dollar strengthen against most all other currencies, FXA, FXC, FXE, etc. Dollar strength tends to lead the stock market.
Don't get get me wrong, I am long-term bearish still. I think we will see the CNBC and BTV start marking the end of the credit crisis, calling Bernanke a hero, but the rally will be a sucker's rally. We have another $300 billion in losses coming for our countries financial institutions, we will see interest rate hikes later in the year when the Fed is forced to address inflation, and the rest of the world is now feeling out financial pain. Play the bullishiness while it last but use stops and position sizing!
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