Cornerstone Growth

Using similar criteria to Wall Street legend William O'Shaugnessy's Cornerstone Growth Fund I look for undervalued stocks in strong industry groups showing long-term relative strength. Check them out:
CALM - Uptrend with momentum, 10.5% dividend yield
AKS - Support bounce off a 30-day moving average
KOP - Pennant flag break out, 1.86% dividend yield
CQB - Support bounce off a 30-day moving average
FLR - Support bounce off a 30-day moving average beware of $170 as resistance but allow room for a break
ACU - Retesting an ascending triangle
BG - Support bounce
WMT - Pulling back look for a bounce or bull flag, 1.64% dividend yield
NM - Broke resistance w/ volume, 3% dividend yield
GSI - Awesome fundamental stock, Bull flag for a target of $13.50 in the short-term but don't be afraid to let it run
MEA - Forming a bull flag as it is retesting a major resistance break from last month
MAN - Last 6-months has been consolidating and reversing now making a higher low

The Cure for High Oil Prices

Can more regulation and more taxes somehow bring down oil prices? What in the heck are they thinking in Washington. Commodities and stocks work in long-term 18 year cycles. That is what happened in the 1900s, 1930s, 1970s, and today. It isn't government conspiracy or Bush and his big oil friends who want to drill in Anwar it is demand from China and India coupled with a weak dollar. This is the price we pay when 3rd world countries progress and our Monetary policy makers lack backbone. Rejoice in the wealth being built in these countries and realize eventually, supply will meet demand through new wells, efficiency gains, and alternatives. It is not an over night fix so be ready to endure high inflation for quite some time. There are plenty of ways to profit from this commodity boom so become educated. Read the not so well written but sufficient book "Hot Commodities" by investing legend Jim Rogers!

Interesting side note, the week of Black Thursday just before the Great Depression, congress was holding hearings on how to tax the railroads for their "windfall profits". You gotta love government. I bet if you looked back in 1999 when oil was trading around $11 a barrel congress was looking for a way to subsidize the oil companies to keep them afloat. Sometimes you get the bull like these oil guys are now, sometimes you get the horn like they did in 1999 and couldn't stay in business.

No Foolin I'm Bullish

Despite all my rantings on the economy and how I think the government is making things worse I am bullish for April. Seasonally speaking the market cycle is bullish this month. Last months break down in commodities on the DBA and the DBC along with weakness in Gold (GLD) and Oil (USO) tell me there is a window of relief from out of control commodity bulls. Even though Australia didn't cut rates last night we are seeing the dollar strengthen against most all other currencies, FXA, FXC, FXE, etc. Dollar strength tends to lead the stock market.

Don't get get me wrong, I am long-term bearish still. I think we will see the CNBC and BTV start marking the end of the credit crisis, calling Bernanke a hero, but the rally will be a sucker's rally. We have another $300 billion in losses coming for our countries financial institutions, we will see interest rate hikes later in the year when the Fed is forced to address inflation, and the rest of the world is now feeling out financial pain. Play the bullishiness while it last but use stops and position sizing!

****Spitzer Alert****

This just in!!! A new picture has surfaced on Spitzer!! See for yourself. I think it looks real. Don't you???


You Be The Judge!!

Innocent till proven guilty but he may get a piece of his own medicine. Payback is a @#$%&! But you really can fault a guy in getting his oo-mox on, right???

CLIENT Number 9

If you have been under a rock today or haven't been able to read the news headlines today, you have missed the next new episode of Law and Order. You really can't make up this stuff some times and people really don't think things through no matter how smart they are.

Governor Elliot Spitzer of New York City is on the verge of resigning today because he was caught in a prostitution ring sting. He just talked with reporters about how he needs to work on and focus on gaining his families respect and trust back. Well, that may be difficult since he was such a "defender of truth" in his prosecution days.

Many on Wall Street, you can hear cheering and possibly chanting "ding dong the witch is dead!" I think he will need to resign his post as governor of NY in his 345th day of governorship.

Spitzer and the Witch from Wizard of Oz (Don't they seem similar?)

How can he think that he could get away with it being in a club called the Emperors club that sets up these prostitutes for high net worth clients. Also, on one of the busiest days of the year when individuals cheat on their spouse and government monitoring of this day for those cheats, February 13th (day before valentines day), you would think that this guy would know better. I guess that is why some in New York got the feeling that he had the "god" complex or untouchable air about him. I don't know him but this isn't good and must go down in a idiot-in-charge stupidity.

Again, there must be someway to make something off of this event. That is just how good Ferengi's think. I know others will. It is too bad but I think that all those that have been wronged by this guy, should have some fun and reprocussion on. All is fair in love and money!!! Have fun you Wall Street guys!!!!!!! Law and Order writers, you have an easy script here. Have some fun with it too.

Clear Message from Universal Translators

Reed Elsevier Plc (RUK)

Big money movers seem to be sending a message on Reed Elsevier Plc (RUK) the last two days, while much higher than normal volume has appeared. Breaking up to new all time highs a window has opened as the stock gapped higher. While this stock specializes in many different areas of information technology and retrieval one that is most interesting to the Ferengi is that work it has done in the are of Machine Translation as a partner in the Babylon translation technology. One caveat I must highlight is before our recent volume in the stock it was only trading about 50,000 shares a day. I will usually pass up a stock with such little liquidity, especially, since I rely on stop losses so much. It is to easy for a stock to be manipulated by big money and market makers.

BTW as a rugby fan how can I pass up a stock with a ticker symbol of RUK?

Autopilot

Like something right out of Star Trek, okay not really Star Trek but more like Time Cop or Demolition Man, cars that may drive themselves. Looking at GM stock it might take ten years to care but the concept is cool.

Insurance Surveillance

Chances are this week aren't going to see much action in the markets as far as buying and selling. We Ferengi always keep an eye on the lunar cycle and the lunar cycle is moving into its consolidation phase, but that is a topic for a different time. I my post Finding Stocks the Ferengi Way I highlighted Insurance (Accident & Health) so I will highlight a few stocks in which I the Bajoran Profit am keeping my lobes alert for.

Long term chart of UNH

In the 2 year weekly chart of UNH we see the downward trend has been broken although we are definitely cautious since see another resistance level at 56. Our oscillators at the bottom both gave us bullish divergences as a an alert to the recent movement and the trend reversal. With the new found uptrend in the industry group we are bullish on this stock's ability to break resistance. This is probably not the entry for a swing trader but the trend trader should consider a small position here.

Short term chart of UNH

The next stock in this group is WLP or Wellpoint Inc. The long-term chart of WLP shows a downward consolidation that was recently broken. The trend trade could entry here with a stop around $82 and then scale into a larger position if and when the stock breaks the $86 resistance level.

Long term chart of WLP

The shorter term play would be the channel itself. No doubt the break a few weeks ago would've been the best entry but we are half way through the $10 move now. Entering now with a stop at the quarter mark ($82.50) can still allow us to make a little off them move here and keep at least a 2 to 1 reward to risk ratio.

Short term chart of WLP

Smokin like a Vulcan

Earlier this week we highlighted Tobacco. If you were an on the ball you may already be in this trade. Altria (MO) formerly known as Phillip Morris just broke out of some sideways action. I have outlined another swing trade here.

MO

Using the break of resistance here for another flag we can outline our risk and reward. Implementing an ancient Japanese trading system of candlesticks we know that the half way point of “large” candles act as an area of support or resistance. So I have a fairly tight stop.

Anyone can trade the trend on these bullish trends by implementing an 8% trailing stop loss.

Finding Stocks The Ferengi Way

Here are a few key Ferengi Rules of Acquisition that can helps us find stocks in which we would want to trade. These rules are significant because they lead us into a top down approach. A wise man can hear profit in the wind because he is looking for the next opportunity. He understands that in a bull market everyone looks like a trading guru but a bear weeds out the chaff. The crowd jumps on at the end when the wise and prudent are selling and those who have become educated will reap the rewards.

Rule 22 – A wise man can hear profit in the wind
Rule 44 – Never confuse wisdom with luck
Rule 69 – Ferengi are not responsible for the stupidity of other races
Rule 74 – Knowledge equals profit
Rule 162 – Even in the worst of times someone turns a profit
Rule 217 – You can’t free a fish from water

Below you will find relative strength charts of four different industry groups versus the S&P 500. If the chart is uptrending then the industry group is outperforming the S&P 500 whereas the opposite is true if we were searching for bearish stocks. The recent decline in the markets makes the wise trader prove his mettle. As I mentioned before the prudent investor is looking for the next opportunity. Since stocks tend to move with their industry groups we can find good stocks by finding industry groups with strength.

Relative Strength Charts

Major Drugs

I particularly like this chart because it has recently broken out of a down trend. Although we didn’t get the very bottom (and rarely will we ever) we may be getting in on a fresh new uptrend.

Insurance Accident & Health

Insurance gives me similar excitement because we see it was in a sideways basing pattern for some time. Now we see it has broken out of its consolidation and a new uptrend may be on the way.

Tobacco

Tobacco has been showing strength for some time so we aren’t necessarily finding a bottom but we are seeing a break out of a “resting period”. These companies do a lot of exporting so they are benefiting from a weak American dollar. Also, any Ferengi investor understands what a good investment addictive products are!

Oil & Gas Operations

We have all seen gas and oil companies profiting from the rise in oil prices. Once again the weak dollar along with higher world demand for crude has driven oil prices higher and higher. A break out of this consolidation is also evident on the chart.

Here we have identified four possible groups of opportunity. Look for my next postings where I will identify stocks and ETF stocks that will allow us to begin out profiteering.

On a side note, these are all industry groups that perform well when the economy is about to go into recession.