Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Recession Double Talk

Currently we see financial mavens claiming a recession won't occur, will occur, we are already in a recession, etc. Last week the President spoke concerning the economy prophesying a recession won't happen. He may be correct not because the economy will return to gang-buster growth, but because of the definition of a recession.

A recession is defined by two consecutive terms of lower growth. If we see GDP at 5% than 4% than 3% we would say we're in a recession. What if we are at 5% than 3 % then up to 3.5% back down to 2.9%, is that a recession? According to the strict definition of a recession the answer is no. Now, what if we are at 5%, then 2%, and then grow to 2.01%, 2.02%, 2.03% and so on. Technically it isn't a recession but the economy sucks royal!!
If we had a real leader, and believe me no one on either side of the aisle fits this bill, they would warn people of economic slow down and preparation instead of the Recession Double Talk we are getting now.

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