Creative Accounting Keeps Inflation Under Control

No doubt you have heard us rant about the government not counting energy, food, and housing as inflation when they refer to "core" inflation. We all certainly know that the core part of our everyday lives certainly don't include energy, food or housing, right? (In case you aren't picking up on this, it is dripping with sarcasm.) Today's CPI report sees the largest rise in 18 years for food prices but energy has stayed the same when the Department of Labor readjusts for seasonal cycles. No doubt your paycheck is readjusted for seasonal cycles just like ours!

What a load of B.S.!

Are Biofuels the Problem?

Energy prices are going through the roof and as I wrote the other day that prices may go to $10 a gallon, the emphasis has been on alternate energy solutions. This has created opportunities for alternate energy companies to cash in on the hype and demand. Biofuels have filled this new demand and has also created a growing (no pun intended) problem. Since biofuels is grown on farms and creates ethanol, this has caused a problem on the world food supply. Recently, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke on the increasing world food prices.

Since the all the rules of acquisition are all about profits and gaining as much as possible, can you fault farmers in taking the initiative to gain as much of it as possible? Here are some biofuel stocks that I am looking at currently and really see if some profits can be made.
ADM
BG
BP
CAG
CVX
MON
PEIX
RDS.B

One little wrinkle in the whole genetically modified seeds that is the largest component of ethanol, is that the UN has created a task force on world food prices. This may cause a problem with the worlds largest genetically modifying engineering of biofuels company, ADM. They have already halted construction of 2 plants for creating biofuels.

What do you? You want to help the environment but do not want to pay the price? It is cause and effect theory.

Worldwide Water Woes

Clean water it is becoming even more difficult to obtain throughout the world due to growing population and poor stewardship of current resources. Read through this long, long, article and see if you don't want to purchase the Water Resource exchange-traded fund (PHO). Maybe I will become a moisture farmer like those on Tatooine.

Nuclear Power the ONLY Real Alternative

In light of the food shortages caused in part by alternative foods, nuclear power is becoming the only real feasible alternative energy source. Currently wind and solar can't create the capacity needed, once again bringing us back to Nuclear Energy. Even the founder of Greenpeace believes it's time to assimilate it as an alternative. The exchange-traded fund for Nuclear Power is NLR, which gives you a way to profit.

Food Shortage Hits Home

The world wide food shortage is hitting the San Fransisco treat.

Hedge your Shopping List

Assuming you're not one of those people who work for the Fed who believe that food and energy don't count as inflation, you have probably noticed the rise in food costs. The world is seeing inflation from a rise in demand for human consumption and energy alternatives. You can actually profit from this phenomenon by investing the DBA Agricultural exchange traded commodity fund.

The Cure for High Oil Prices

Can more regulation and more taxes somehow bring down oil prices? What in the heck are they thinking in Washington. Commodities and stocks work in long-term 18 year cycles. That is what happened in the 1900s, 1930s, 1970s, and today. It isn't government conspiracy or Bush and his big oil friends who want to drill in Anwar it is demand from China and India coupled with a weak dollar. This is the price we pay when 3rd world countries progress and our Monetary policy makers lack backbone. Rejoice in the wealth being built in these countries and realize eventually, supply will meet demand through new wells, efficiency gains, and alternatives. It is not an over night fix so be ready to endure high inflation for quite some time. There are plenty of ways to profit from this commodity boom so become educated. Read the not so well written but sufficient book "Hot Commodities" by investing legend Jim Rogers!

Interesting side note, the week of Black Thursday just before the Great Depression, congress was holding hearings on how to tax the railroads for their "windfall profits". You gotta love government. I bet if you looked back in 1999 when oil was trading around $11 a barrel congress was looking for a way to subsidize the oil companies to keep them afloat. Sometimes you get the bull like these oil guys are now, sometimes you get the horn like they did in 1999 and couldn't stay in business.

What will change the world first, Communciation or Transportation.

Last month we saw the man who changed the world, Mr. Bill Gates, predict the end of the keyboard. Now he is forecasting large leaps in future technology along the same lines in voice recognition and touch screens. These are very exciting but they won't change the world like we have seen in the past. In fact, with today's commodity markets the advances that will change the world will be those that find greater efficiencies in fuel or fuel alternative. Looking throughout history those inventions that improve the way products are moved to trade and sell effect commerce the most. Taming of animals, the wheel, animal drawn wagons, boats, rail roads, steam engines, cars, trucks, airplanes, jets, speed train, etc. I would be looking f0r a company more like Orbital Sciences Corp. (ORB) to change the world this next time around versus Microsoft (MSFT). I'm interested in some discussion and debate, please feel free to comment.

EURO GONE WILD

Not to be mistaken or associated with the all to well known similar oo-mox title with "wild" in its heading (guys, you all know what that is about from those late night info-mercials), the euro has now hit the target on a ascending triangle formation (as seen below.) It has run and made a 700 pip move and what a move it was.

Now that it has made the predicted move I am starting to see a possible pull back down to a support level. I am not sure if it will pull back to 1.4900 or 1.5000, but it may pull back to a 1.5200 if it does. Currently, anything trading against the dollar seems to be the best bet to trade and may be the case for a while to come. It is hard to see this because I think the Fed and the administration wants the dollar to stay down. I like to think there is a method to their madness but for now, my ferengi oo-mox is trading against the dollar for now.

~G

My EUR/USD Trade

Ok, so the Dollar keeps on getting hammered and the Euro just keeps on going up higher and higher. As you know, I have been bullish the Euro for a little while and have been doing well since 1.4600 on the pair. I was bearish for a short while but ended up going long again and set up a limit sell order at 1.5450 if the pair just shot up. Well, it shot up and I got out of my position at 1.5450 because of my order I had set up on it. I am a happy camper with all my latnium.

Going forward, I still see some bullishness around it as the dollar still weakens. There is talk now of the Fed possibly having an emergency cut because of the markets. I can't see it helping much and only postponing the inevitable. I definitely think that we are in a recession and even though we are no where like the 1920s, it still is a for of recession. In a article that is from 2006 on when recessions may have happened in the past, goes to show that we may be in a small one right now. This article goes into some good information on the make up of these recessions.

Now, my Ferengi side tells me that there is money(latnium) to be made in this time of crises. And that is what I am doing. I just have to be against the dollar till there is something that convinces me that it is turning around. Who know, maybe the dollar will become the new currency carry trade. Remember, making and getting latnium is the" true" oo-mox experience!!!!

We Need Food Synthesizers

The time is fast approaching where food synthesizers are needed badly. Look at this article on the soaring cost of food. The beauty of capitalism is that times like these prompt invention and innovation, especially when the need is so high. Of course there is always some profit to be made just look at the Powershares Agriculture (DBA) ETF index. Be warned, and I shouldn't tell you this because the Ferengi are not responsible for other peoples' ignorance and stupidity, but the seasonal cycles for grain tops out in what is called the February Break. Since the index rallied through February, we are long overdue.

Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX)

Diana Shipping Inc (DSX)


So, Bajoran Profit has been busy lately being a producer of some sorts and so asked me to post this information on Diana Shipping Inc. I am sure that he will be writing more on this position later.

DSX currently has a peg ratio at .74 and a dividend yield over 8% and has recently bounced off a good support level. There could be a return to a $32.50 level and then on up even higher. These are my thoughts but Bajoran Profit can speak for himself.

As for me, I am going to get some more latinum and have a party with my last trade on the Euro. Nice run and still running. The pullback never emerged but that is ok, I am still bullish. I see it going to 1.5450 at this rate. With the large ascending triangle that it made, this 500 pip move is possible. I am keeping my stops semi tight on the way up just in case some econo-nerd from the fed or government says something to pull it back. We will see.
- oo-mox

My Euro Trade

Like most Ferengi's, their passion usually revolves around 2 things: Latinum and oo-mox. Since we don't trade latinum here on earth yet, and we call OO-MOX something else, my passions are not so dissimilar. As you know (all 1 reader out there) that I am passionate about currency trading.

Here is a trade that I recently did on the EUR/USD. I actually told several people to play the bounce off of a strong diagonal support level. There has been a strong resistance level at 1.4900 since November. The Euro has tested this level three times and also creating higher bottoms three times. On the last support level bottom that it created on 2/07/08, was a great entry play to the resistance level again. A move from 1.4500 to the resistance was the play to make. Who doesn't want to make 400 pips? I set my target at 1.4950 and got out yesterday with a 450 pip profit. Not bad for a very good predictive play.

Recent trade on the EUR/USD

Now the pair has broken this strong resistance level and is continuing up another 200 pips to a very overbought area. I expect a pull back now to the new support of 1.4900 and then a bounce back up to 1.51 to even higher levels. I really can see a move to 1.60 now a higher possibility over the next year. I guess a wait and see on that one. But an new entry at a bounce of 1.490 may be a good bounce.


New trades on the EUR/USD - one short reversal trade

For a short trade from these highs to 1.4900 may be a good quick short term play because of overbought area on the position. It may be good but be careful and have fun if you do. Watch your risk and don't over leverage.

We may see some wild things happening but I am in a short trade already to the support area. We will see how it goes.

More Doom and Gloom

I found this article to be very insightful as far as a Doomsday scenario. Remember it doesn't have to be all issues occurring at once but just a few of them back to back, to make life really difficult.

Bernake: The Dollar Destoyer!

So the word on the street today is the Fed may once again reduce rates. Earthlings have become so scared of a recession that they are willing to destroy the value of the dollar to just delay the inevitable. Look, like it or not we are going into a recession. Short sited Earth bankers and borrowers were willing to lend money to any homo-sapien that could fog a mirror and they are just afraid to let banks pay the consequences. Where are the Milton Friedman lasse faire economists? Why are they so afraid to let the foolish businessmen take their lumps (Ferengi are not responsible for the stupidity of other races)? New financial leaders will rise out of the ashes and they will be all the wiser because of it.

The Ferengi watched in admiration of President Ronald Regan and his understanding of a strong dollar policy, "The Dollar will be as good as gold" was the cry then. Aren't all these FOMC people suppose to be your so called Regan Republicans? Why are they so willing to let the dollar die on the vine?

Money in the currency market flows to the country that is usually paying the best savings rates. The US was the envy of the world and the dollar was strong all through the 80-90s, the strong dollar policy helped the US lead the world in development and strength. Every time Bernake seeks to lower the interest rate to cave to Wall Street traders he further weakens the dollar. Interest Rates are still at very historical lows, maintaining the current rate will at least help to stabilize the dollar. There is no cure for the housing market just give it up already. Let the market shake out and run its course.

In 1929 where we faced similar economic issues and the Fed increase the interest rates in order to strengthen the dollar and combat inflation but then sparked the worst sell off in the stock market. In 1998 the Fed had a similar liquidity crisis thanks to the "genius" of Long-Term Capital Management and all the banks that lent them money. The Fed increased liquidity by lower interest rates at the time to bail the banks out, but the dropping commodity market and deflation made the economic situation favorable for the time and the cuts didn't hurt. This time we are in a harder situation because earth has a liquidity issue created once again by the ridiculous bankers lending for any reason, but the cutting of the interest rates is perpetuating inflation and an already bullish commodity market. Raising interest rates to combat the inflation may put us into 1929 decline but lowering the rates puts into 1970s type inflation. The only logical course from my point of view is to just leave the rates alone. Quit tinkering with it. Allow this economy to play its way out.

Bernake believes that the rest of the world is going to eventually fall into recession just like the US so the rate cuts will eventually be countered by the cuts in other countries. The world is bigger than it used to be. New large consumers like China and India may not bring the kind of slow down we expect. Countries like Canada, Mexico, Australia, and Russia who are profiting from the skyrocketing commodity prices and may make up much of the consumption the US will slack off on because wealth is increasing in those areas. Bernake may very well be right but it seems to me he is spinning the revolver with a few extra rounds.

Finding Stocks The Ferengi Way

Here are a few key Ferengi Rules of Acquisition that can helps us find stocks in which we would want to trade. These rules are significant because they lead us into a top down approach. A wise man can hear profit in the wind because he is looking for the next opportunity. He understands that in a bull market everyone looks like a trading guru but a bear weeds out the chaff. The crowd jumps on at the end when the wise and prudent are selling and those who have become educated will reap the rewards.

Rule 22 – A wise man can hear profit in the wind
Rule 44 – Never confuse wisdom with luck
Rule 69 – Ferengi are not responsible for the stupidity of other races
Rule 74 – Knowledge equals profit
Rule 162 – Even in the worst of times someone turns a profit
Rule 217 – You can’t free a fish from water

Below you will find relative strength charts of four different industry groups versus the S&P 500. If the chart is uptrending then the industry group is outperforming the S&P 500 whereas the opposite is true if we were searching for bearish stocks. The recent decline in the markets makes the wise trader prove his mettle. As I mentioned before the prudent investor is looking for the next opportunity. Since stocks tend to move with their industry groups we can find good stocks by finding industry groups with strength.

Relative Strength Charts

Major Drugs

I particularly like this chart because it has recently broken out of a down trend. Although we didn’t get the very bottom (and rarely will we ever) we may be getting in on a fresh new uptrend.

Insurance Accident & Health

Insurance gives me similar excitement because we see it was in a sideways basing pattern for some time. Now we see it has broken out of its consolidation and a new uptrend may be on the way.

Tobacco

Tobacco has been showing strength for some time so we aren’t necessarily finding a bottom but we are seeing a break out of a “resting period”. These companies do a lot of exporting so they are benefiting from a weak American dollar. Also, any Ferengi investor understands what a good investment addictive products are!

Oil & Gas Operations

We have all seen gas and oil companies profiting from the rise in oil prices. Once again the weak dollar along with higher world demand for crude has driven oil prices higher and higher. A break out of this consolidation is also evident on the chart.

Here we have identified four possible groups of opportunity. Look for my next postings where I will identify stocks and ETF stocks that will allow us to begin out profiteering.

On a side note, these are all industry groups that perform well when the economy is about to go into recession.

Welcome to Trading the Ferengi Way

We are a couple of traders that want to have some great discussions and give our thoughts on trading in the markets. We have many, many insights and need a place to put it all. We needed a venue to discuss everything that we have in our big Ferengi heads. We want to show real life examples and insights with a Ferengi twist. We will be using the Ferengi Rules of Acquisition as a kind of play book and model.

I guess the only thing to say now is Hang On And Enjoy The Ride.